8 Comments
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Andrew's avatar

Garcia coming back to earth feels inevitable, but if the rest of the offense puts up numbers like this...

I think it might be a fun year (As long as Pitching doesn't drop off too much)

Hokius's avatar

If India gives us those numbers, I will take them in a heartbeat

Preston Farr's avatar

I'm probably just on the January Hopium, but between the flukey injuries all last year (HBP, spiked, shoulder, wrist) and the fences moving in to help some, he feels like a safe bet to be notably better next season.

Hokius's avatar

Yeah, I think he and Massey stand to benefit the most from the fences coming in. We shall see!

Andrew's avatar

If the walls being league average depth gets these hitters out of their own heads.....it might help them on the road too. JJ seemed to imply that they were swinging harder on the road to hit more homers....now they can have one approach only.

Max Rieper's avatar

Good stuff Preston. Can you share a bit more about your model without getting into too much detail? Just curious to hear about your method.

Preston Farr's avatar

Thanks, Max! The projections are done through Triple Exponential Smoothing using trailing 4-year data but it’s also broken down into per-game data with other tweaks to account for MiLB vs MLB, etc. (MiLB data isn’t going to go one for one with MLB data, for example).

I’m not an expert at projections by any means, just for fun. So it can certainly be limited especially by player development over noise. I wouldn’t take the projections with you to Vegas. 😂

Stanton's avatar

I find it interesting that Bobby Baseball isn't projected to come anywhere near the AVG he post in his (breakout) 2024 season). Does anyone really think his days of hitting .300 are over?