2026 Projections: Part One

A look at what the data thinks the Royals will do in 2026.

Jan 19, 2026

Around this time each year, rosters come into focus and we get a sense for what the Royals will look like in the season ahead. Around that time, I like to put together stat projections for what the season ahead may hold. In December 2024, I ran these and Vinnie Pasquantino came in at .264/.332/.455 with 22 home runs and 123 RBI. He finished the 2025 season at .264/.323/.475 with 32 home runs and 113 RBI. The numbers projected Jonathan India at a .239 average with 13 home runs and he finished the season at .233 and nine. At the same time, these numbers finished way off last season on Maikel Garcia after his breakout campaign. They also finished too high on Bobby Witt Jr., coming in 9 home runs over where he actually finished the season.

All that to say, these projections are far from accurate but it’s a fun exercise that helps to gauge where this team’s weaknesses are heading into spring training. It gives a good gauge of where things stand and just how good the Royals can be in the new season ahead. This year, I ran the numbers through my forecast workbook, accounting for an increase in home runs and a slight decrease in doubles. Those changes, of course, account for the fences moving in a Kauffman Stadium in 2026. Here’s where the projections landed for some key players in 2026:

Jonathan India: 125 G, .251/.318/.406, 14 HR, 21 2B, 10.2% BB%, 21.7% K%

Michael Massey: 60 G, .244/.277/.387, 7 HR, 6 2B, 5.2% BB%, 19.1% K%

Bobby Witt Jr.: 160 G, .289/.352/.546, 34 HR, 49 2B, 8.8% BB%, 18.0% K%

Maikel Garcia: 155 G, .268/.315/.426, 14 HR, 29 2B, 7.5% BB%, 17.4% K%

Vinnie Pasquantino: 159 G, .267/.321/.510, 36 HR, 8.4% BB%, 16.4% K%

Salvador Perez: 149 G, .254/.294/.481, 34 HR, 5.8% BB%, 17.9% K%

Jac Caglianone: 152 G, .247/.343/.476, 27 HR, 12.2% BB%, 24.0% K%

The Kauffman Stadium fences are a welcome boost for much of the Royals offense, but shouldn’t be seen as a driving force behind an offensive surge in 2026. The projections here see a bounce-back from Jonathan India after he struggled through injuries in his first season as a Royal. His projected .723 OPS would still be a step down from where he was in his final two years with the Reds, but a much better finish than we saw in 2025.

A full season from Jac Caglianone gets him close to 30 home runs, but questions about chase and healthy contact continue to limit him some. Still, a 12% walk rate and .819 OPS would come pretty close to “as-advertised” for the 23-year-old slugger. Vinnie Pasquantino projects here to lead the team in home runs again, this time with 36. That’s four more than he finished with in 2025 and his .510 projected slugging percentage would be a career-high. Also of note, the projection sees Vinnie’s walk rate taking a step up in 2026, falling more in line with where he finished in his first two MLB seasons rather than the sub-8% numbers we saw in 2024 and 2025.

Salvador Perez will continue to flourish with a bit less space between home plate and the left-center wall. He will fly past the Royals’ franchise home run record, passing Hall of Famer George Brett and finishing the season with 34. Perez would become just the second Royal ever to have back-to-back 30+ home run seasons, joining Bobby Witt Jr. Speaking of Witt Jr., he projects here to finish the season with an .898 OPS. That number is 40 points higher than his 2025 finish thanks to a serious uptick in home runs.

Perhaps the only projection here that would be a true disappointment relative to expectation is third baseman Maikel Garcia. A .741 OPS is still a solid finish, especially for a player with the defensive value of Garcia. The projection just doesn’t buy last year’s surge in average as sticky, with Garcia hitting 20 points lower in batting average than he finished in 2025. That paired with a 2% drop in walk rate (more in line with his career average) drops Garcia’s OBP by 40 points. While it would be a downward trend compared to 2025, Garcia’s 2025 season should probably be seen as his 80th percentile outcome and much closer to a ceiling than what should be expected from him year in and year out.

This week, I’ll work on part two and round out the rest of the offense before moving on to some pitcher projections.

Prospect of the Week: LHP Hunter Owen

Drafted in the fourth-round out of Vanderbilt, Hunter Owen was a well-received pick by the Royals almost immediately. With great stuff, some (including myself) had Owen graded a tick higher than the fourth-round. He throws a solid four-pitch mix featuring a mid-90s fastball, high-spin curve, slider, and a changeup. Despite being a college arm, the Royals have moved slowly with Owen. He worked through some injuries shortly after the draft, then landed in High-A Quad Cities to open the 2024 season. He spent the whole season there, followed by a trip to Northwest Arkansas last season.

In the move up a level, Owen saw his strikeout rate move up from 18.9% to 25.9%. Opposing hitters batted just .234 against him, although he walked a bit too many at 9.7%. The lack of command limits the starting potential some, making Owen a strong bullpen candidate at the Major League level. Mechanically, Owen hides the ball well with a short arm-action from the left side. The compact delivery paired with his bulky 6-5 frame gives Owen’s delivery a bit of an awkward feel at times, likely contributing to some of his command issues. He leans heavily on chase at times, rather than missing bats, again limiting his starting potential but offering up promising upside as a relief arm.