Mailbag: Second base, Prospects on the way, and early draft thoughts
I answer your questions!
Thanks to those who were able to submit some questions in our Substack Chat channel. It’s been amazing to see the support as I’ve jumped back into writing after a little more than six months away. I’ll have at least two newsletters out this week. This one will cover the mailbag questions, but I also plan to have one out covering the Matt Quatraro extension, international signing period, and Vinnie Pasquantino’s long-term value. Jumping right into Mailbag, there were a handful of questions ranging from second base projections to prospects and even some early draft thoughts. We’ll cover them all here!
"As the roster sits right now, what kind of expectations do you have for Massey and India? Will either of them play anywhere other than second and what kind of games played is each looking at.” -Chris Rohr
“What is your prediction of Games/ABs for Massey, India & unnamed 2B?” -Tim White
What better place to start than arguably the only piece of the roster that hasn’t seen any sort of change so far this offseason? The Royals have agreed to 2026 contracts with both Jonathan India ($8 million) and Michael Massey ($1.57 million), avoiding arbitration. India is coming off his worst season as a professional, slashing .233/.323/.346 over 136 games. Michael Massey’s 2025 season was nothing short of a disaster. He struggled through injury much of the season, mustering just a 57 wRC+ across 77 games played. Massey’s power was completely absent, and he was worth negative fWAR for the first time in his career.
The good news for Kansas City is that it isn’t difficult to see how either of these players could bounce back to strong results in 2026. The bad news is, well, it’s also pretty easy to see how they don’t bounce back at all. I ran both Massey and India through my projections workbook to see how it feels they’ll fare in the new year:
Jonathan India: 125 G, .244/.311/.382, 11 HR, 7 SB, 21.7% K%, 10.2% BB%
Michael Massey: 68 G, .266/.287/.377, 6 HR, 3 SB, 17.8% K%, 4.3% BB%
Those are hardly impressive, even if both offer moderate bouncebacks over last year’s poor results. I’m not confident the Royals will change second base much before Opening Day. I expect they’ll give some non-roster invites like Abraham Toro and Josh Rojas a chance to make the roster. Peyton Wilson may get a chance as well. Sadly, even those options don’t offer a lot of confidence. I expect India and Massey to platoon at second base for much of the first half before the Royals look to the trade market in June/July to upgrade for the playoff push.
“Besides Jensen and Avila, are there any prospects that could contribute to the big league team this year?” -Substack User
Jensen seems like a lock for the Opening Day roster, and Avila will almost certainly get MLB innings if he’s still in the organization by the time April rolls around. Beyond those two, there are more names in the mix to appear in the MLB this season. Steven Zobac is likely chief among them. Zobac has an impressive fastball and was added to the 40-man roster this offseason. He pairs the fastball with a solid slider and above-average command. I like him as a reliever in the big leagues this season with a chance to prove himself and make some starts someday.
Beyond Zobac, infielders Peyton Wilson and Javi Vaz may get some looks. That’s especially true if the trade market doesn’t bear any fruit come mid-July. Last but not least, I’ll throw out the name Carson Roccaforte. I think he’s closer than it may seem, thanks to his high-floor defensive value. That said, it would take serious disappointments or injury from Isbel, Thomas, and Tolbert for Roccaforte to get any consideration. Even then, Kameron Misner and Dairon Blanco may factor in first.
“What’s the floor of Kudrna at the point? What’s the ceiling?” -Lobster Rickets
Kudrna still has a mid-rotation upside but it all depends on his fastball. I’ve said for quite some time now that his fastball was going to limit him and we started to see just that in 2025. Kudrna made it to Triple-A Omaha for the first time last season, pitching to a 9.94 FIP across 4 appearances and 11.1 IP. It’s foolish to take away anything from an 11-inning sample. However, in some senses, it was just more of the same from Kudrna. Opponents hit .311 against him while with Omaha. They hit .278 against him the year prior with Northwest Arkansas. For much of his professional career, Kudrna has struggled immediately following promotion before settling in to open the next season.
Perhaps he will settle in, but the fastball needs work. Kudrna has long touched the mid-90s with the heater. He’s even touched upper-90s in isolated places, but the pitch lacks shape and spin. By the end of last season, he started to struggle with fatigue and lose much of the velocity as well. There were starts by the end of 2025 where Kudrna was averaging just 91 mph with his fastball. The velocity will probably return to open 2026, but without tweaks to the fastball, Kudrna’s most likely path to the big leagues is something similar to what we’ve seen from Daniel Lynch. He will need to start expanding his arsenal and leaning more heavily on his strong changeup for outs.
“Where would you lean at #6 in the draft?” -Jeff Bosch
It’s still extremely early, and much could change between now and July. With that said, I had Konnor Griffin written in as my pick for the Royals as early as December 2023, and that didn’t really change by the time the draft rolled around. This year I’m again in love with the prep class. Shortstop Grady Emerson is the cream of the crop that might as well be called Bobby Witt Jr.-lite. I don’t believe he will be as good as Witt, but he’s just outside that same hemisphere and should be the clear top prep bat in this year’s class.
Emerson will likely be gone by six, and I also love the idea of prep shortstop Jacob Lombard, outfielder Drew Burress (Georgia Tech), and maybe even RHP Liam Peterson (Florida). I don’t love the early prep pitchers this year as options in the early first round. In all, I much prefer the bats this year in the early first over any of the arms. However, much of that could change between now and the end of the NCAA season. Right now, I’d rank them as follows:
SS Grady Emerson
OF Drew Burress
SS Jacob Lombard
Great job as always Preston
A projected .675 OPS from the second base position with mediocre defense is pretty sad. Sure hope they do something before the season.